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Forecasting method and its application in material transport management


For the C: 6, and then the rest A meeting was 5022.95t, A has been exhausted, is zoned to B2 column; then only the column, the smallest element of C: 7, from A. All remaining just met, with the potential method can be proved to be the optimal solution. Through this analysis the minimum transportation cost can be drawn: 6500x +3500 x +5022.95 x6 +3000 x7 = 81637.7 million. 3 Conclusion number of models predict any kind of results can not be completely accurate,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], mainly because any kind of models are directly or indirectly, based on historical data modeling, and a complex economic system,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], with the passage of time and historical data Contact the internal and external environmental conditions will produce a variety of changes. In the long run, may produce sudden change, and this change is not reflected by the model itself out, and require a combination of qualitative analysis of a variety of assumptions. The author used the trend of moving average time series, adaptive filter forecasting method, the gray prediction method, using the AHP to determine the appropriate combination of weight after the forecast, over the years through a company's annual steel consumption to predict future steel demand conditions, strive to make the future economic uncertainty of the process to minimize, in a bid to get more accurate predictions. I will combine forecasting methods applied to the transport model, can be predicted several years seeking the geometric mean or weighted average, than the predicted value in just one year to be more scientific and rational; followed by the transfer station to the production base from materials steel consumption and traffic forecasting methods can also be combined to predict the results would be more accurate. References: [I] Lucci, GU Pei-liang, Qiu Shiming. Combination Forecasting Model in the construction of the system energy consumption and application [J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2003,9 (3): 24.30. [2] Zhou Hong, Liao Xuezhen. Logit demand forecasting research [J]. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice, 2003,22 (2) :18-21. [3] Wei Yanyan. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the enterprise market adaptability evaluation [J]. Industrial Engineering, 2005,7 (2): 22I24. [4] Li Xiaofeng. Artificial neural network on AHP model [J]. Sichuan University: Engineering Science, 2003,9 (I) :17-19. [5] Taoju Chun, Wu Jianmin. Comprehensive integrated weighted scoring method to determine the weight of new exploration [J]. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice, 2001,25 (2) :21-23. [6] Zhang Qing. Optimal combination forecast based on neural network application of the method of [J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice, 2001,9 (5) :33-35. [7] Xie Kaigui, PROCEEDINGS. Variable weight combination forecasting model [J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2000,8 (4) :22-24. [8] Wang Lianfen, Xu Shubai. Introduction of AHP [M]. Beijing: China Renmin University Press ,1990:37-135. (Continued from page 9 process, the process of calculating the capacity of key processes, and ultimately found to cause unusual fluctuations in the quality of welding the main reason is that some of the key equipment of the mold does not match the size and design size, equipment wear and tear of aging. Only solve the current problem of lack of capacity, after the process so that the whole production process is in statistical control status of each process in order to further use of experimental design to improve the automated welding process, to ensure that test data from the system error interference. References: [1] ZHANG Gen Paul, He Zhen. Quality Management and Reliability [M]. Revision. Beijing: China Science and Technology Press ,2005:50-54. [2] TagueRNancy. QualityToolbox [M]. 2. Milwaukee, Wis-consin: ASQQualityPress ,2005:376-380. [3] HE Zhen, Zhou Shanzhong. The process of continuous quality improvement to the management of [J]. Industrial Engineering, 2005,8 (5): 3841. [4] CampanellaJack. Principles of Quality Costs: Principles, implementation and application [M]. 3rd ed. WANG Xian China, such as translation. Beijing: Mechanical Industry Press, 2004:31 * 37. [5] Zhoushan Zhong, He Zhen. Statistical process control and its application [J]. Construction Machinery,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2006,37 (I) :59-62. [6] Marin. Six Sigma [M]. Beijing: China Renmin University Press ,2005:199-214. [7] Zhang Zhihong, He Zhen. Experimental design and quality improvement [J]. Construction Machinery, 2006 (2) :62-66.

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