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2008 year 15 September is definitely an important time frames: the world's fourth largest mm investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and triggered a financial tsunami shocked the world. From then until now has been a whole year. Over the past 365 days, with a great history, meaning, specifications, or a position. The so-called history Oakley Juliet Sunglasses, in fact, another term is a macro-historical concept. We know, generally we read history, study history, are more focused on textual criticism, archeology, this is called micro-history. The big thing is to look at history that this matter in the future a broader space inside, what it produces complex with the long-term effects, this is called great history. Over the past 365 days year history are large, because it is the formation of matter from the financial crisis, financial The impact of the tsunami, governments face the impact of response measures taken, the result should be taken by means of a floating mixed results, and then look at the longer term, the impact of it all have a great history of the concept of it is saying a specification. More importantly, the large historical period, China has created a rare beyond any previous history of a great opportunity.
Now we look back we can see, it appears to be a derivatives do not take control of the problem. but the long term, it is actually a deeper level, a global economic structure, particularly with the United States, said the two countries understand China a huge structural imbalances, so It certainly is a big historical concept. impact can give two examples. I remember late last year, with Warren Buffett when he saw the financial crisis as crashing down, and triggered an avalanche of domino effect. the world's leading investment banks are not the four that were closed down, or to reform, or AIG, or Bank of America or Citibank, General Motors or Chrysler, or two rooms, one, one is the same as the flagship of the U.S. Pearl Harbor, sinking boats of.
second with a well-known picture in May of this year, when Singapore was taken with the waters of Indonesia the Malacca Strait. picture you can see a large cargo boats are parked there, you can not see the number of carriers photo, right, 735 comments on it, all cargo ships parked in the traffic there, .735 equivalent to a quarter of the tonnage of the world. not just the Malacca Strait, the Strait of Gibraltar more than 100 vessels, there are more than 300 vessels in Rotterdam, which is the impact of thing. This impact is great, if not non-repeatable, at least unprecedented.
To sum up, the last year of the financial crisis is only a representation, representation of the financial crisis reflects the deep-seated structural core, after all is a huge imbalance in the global economy. This huge imbalance in these, there are two large imbalance: one is the one the United States. how to say? the United States in the past is the world's global consumer, China is the world's largest producer, produced what were all sold to the United States, two aspects of this marriage made in heaven, a wonderful marriage. but this Suddenly in the past year of marriage on the rocks, so in this case, the whole economy is in trouble, so he must be double-adjusted. The so-called dual-adjustment is that China should adjust its growth pattern, the United States To adjust its growth mode. the United States must shift from consumer-oriented professionals for the export-oriented, export-oriented transformation of China must be change from the domestic demand with consumer-oriented. only this double adjustment will continue to be carried on to a completion point, and then Kissinger has said there will be re-balanced. rebalance reached only after the world can once again found a new engine of growth.
I mainly today in the Notes will focus on the future of China by the financial tsunami economy and the stock market is about to bring a large, historical patterns, the financial crisis, China opened a round of top-down revolutionary change from the export-oriented domestic demand and consumption-oriented transformation of the curtain. For example, in the next 10-15 years, Add the amount of the annual GDP will be 16% -17% by the auto industry, automotive industry will be pulling the current and future economy of China's most powerful industries. you can see, due to a long chain of the automotive industry, involving petrochemicals, steel, electricity, tires, finance Oakleys Sunglasses discounted, maintenance services and many other industries, can face the public consumption, therefore, developing the automotive industry can be a country to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption one of the most effective way, it can become a driving force 2009, rapid economic growth, an important part. And we should also see that the car will bring the social structure of mass consumption, living and consumption patterns profound revolution. popularization of automobile consumption can not only change people's activities and change their work, life and interpersonal manner, will change the current urban-rural dual social structure, speed up the integration of urban and rural residents and the process of urbanization in China.
the popularity of car consumption will not only change the residents mode of living, resulting in extension and expansion of rapid urbanization, and will change people's way of life, tourism, countryside recreation and other residents will be the most convenient Shenghuo trend. And it is this social structure and lifestyle changes Oakley Sport Sunglasses, not only increase the population consumer demand, but also created a people's consumption needs. through the development and popularization of the automobile industry to expand domestic demand and the residents is a simple way.
look at the telecommunications industry. It can be said, as the domestic start issuing 3G license the work, will launch 3G in 2009 the peak period of investment and construction. Some analysts pointed out that the telecommunications operator's capital expenditure will be over 310 billion yuan, telecommunications equipment manufacturers will be the main beneficiary of the underlying shares and therefore highly sought after. And, though the 3G telecommunication operators need to have a greater investment, but because of the huge population with a vast market of China will not only attract more users shift from the 2G 3G, but also to attract more users into the 3G market; plus , and from value-added services or to have a faster growth, so that the operators will be very attractive return on 3G, the duration may be in China will be the application of five to eight years. Some people think that, during this time, 3G launch will pull the overall economy may be more than 10 trillion yuan.
we can see, the telecommunications industry, direct pull on the role of the consumer, telecommunications, the role of expanding domestic demand is evident. and telecommunications industry consumer driven, not only for existing telecom industry itself, and acts as the consumer telecommunications industry to create consumption. We only have to look past decade the development of the domestic telecommunications industry, telecommunications industry to be able to see the residents created the role of consumer spending. Therefore, analysts believe that 3G launch in the next 5-8 years, 10 trillion yuan to increase the consumer is not too much. And if we consider the telecommunications industry, the impact of new industries upstream and downstream, then this boost consumer spending The effect may be even greater than we estimated. This paper argues that this is why the emphasis on the central expansion of the telecommunications industry on the importance of consumption, its significance lies in here. for several other industries, not analyzed here.
by the car industry and the telecommunications industry and can be pushed from here to all by the strength of the Chinese government policy to promote the future of wave-spending areas. We may and our imagination, listen out of the pan as much as possible areas of consumer revolution They include food and beverage (including liquor), residential, commercial, household appliances, telecommunications, tourism, etc., so the consumer industry.
investment guru Warren Buffett shares a soft spot for the consumer, Coca-Cola, Gillette and other consumer stocks Buffett has been holding, reluctant to sell, he bought the company, from candy to the carpet, includes almost all aspects of life, consumption of products. then the investment company's outstanding consumer stock, to get long-term lucrative? The answer is yes, the answer do not have to go to the U.S. stock market, can be found in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market.
18-year history of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock shares outstanding performance in the consumer, the author of Statistics from January 1, 1991 to May 28, 2008 Price A shares, after re-calculation of the right, or top two stocks is Luzhou (000,568) and Vanke A, 250-fold increase and 210, respectively times, Moutai (600 519) to 138-fold increase in fourth place, Shuanghui Development (000895), Midea (000 527), Suning Appliance (002024), Queen of shares (600,887), Wangfujing (600 859), first food (600 616) are ranked in the top 20 largest increase in stocks, the cumulative increase of 20 times to 100 times. in the history of the 20 largest stocks rise, consumer stocks accounted for nearly half, with time enough to explain testing, the unique charm of the most consumer stocks. This nine largest consumer stocks rose just involve food and beverage (including liquor), residential, commercial, consumer appliances several major industries, indicating that several major industries to generate large Ushimata. these shares gains are so large, not without reason, with continued strong growth performance of these companies are closely related, such as the most typical Vanke A, 1992-year net profit of only 70 million yuan, net profit in 2007 has been more than 4.8 billion yuan, 67 times performance increase in 15 years, the annual compound growth rate of 33%, few companies can achieve such a level. So, we are looking for consumer stocks that have upside potential of stocks, continues to firmly grasp growth performance of the company the main line.
high or low regardless of the economic boom, the basic consumption of these basic necessities of life will always be the first demand, the consumer sector therefore has a permanent investment potential. especially now, germinal out by the financial crisis The pattern of China's vast history, will enable us to see a drawing board for many years to bring about genuine transformation of domestic demand expansion of domestic demand, consumption upgrade revolution, and this revolution, please do not forget, is to have 1.3 billion people in the The giant of the great powers to achieve. we can already imagine, with the Chinese government policy strongly inclined to the majority of domestic demand, as well as the continuous improvement of living standards of the whole people, a family car, universal high-definition flat-panel TV digital television, the purchasing power of ordinary people, etc. response at various levels such as the wave-consumer forthcoming ......
So, as an economic leading indicators of stock market in the near future will also be formally shown. A shares can be classified as consumer's Quantity can not say much, just good business is always scarce market. For example everyone needs to wear clothes, but not many excellent Chinese apparel companies, listed companies in fewer of these enterprises, small and medium plate and seven wolves BAOXINIAO comparative performance outstanding, but not in both scale and large market share, if they can do, the market potential should be great. listed food and beverage company focused on wine and milk, from the liquor, wine to beer, wine, the most complete wine company, perhaps because the higher liquor profits, in line with market standards. Other major Shuanghui ham do development, so all three dumplings food, restaurant Quanjude, in addition, like Zhangzidao, good masters produced such high-end marine food company, also deserves attention.
shelter are basic needs of people's lives, residential long-term potential of producing the same, but few have the high prices the market was overheated, so many ordinary people just can hope that the Housing disappointed, the real estate market uncertainty will affect the domestic manufacturers is a need to observe factors. car, especially the family car into the stage of rapid development in recent years, such as the first quarter of this year, FAW Car Vehicle sales of more than 28,000, compared with growth of more than 70% over the same period last year, one quarter net profit rose 261% therefore, that car into the family a great deal of investment opportunities. However, the listed companies is not a lot of focus on the vehicle, From another perspective, if the auto industry entered a golden period of development, then, good auto ancillary companies are also facing development opportunities, such as Ningbo Huaxiang first quarter net profit grew by 88%.
course, the consumer company involves a lot of, for example, the number of listed companies are more commercial, with the improvement of people's purchasing power, these companies still have a long-term potential, such as Suning Appliance Chain business representatives, department stores shares on behalf of big business, Guangzhou Friendship, etc., results in recent years good growth. household appliances is also a big plate, particularly the upgrading will bring great opportunities, such as the emergence of high-definition digital TV flat-panel TV sales to increase, bringing set-top boxes, cable TV networks, and other related industries the opportunity. small appliances is also a rich variety of promising industries, Yang nine these days shares are listed on the production of soybean milk. In addition there CYTS, Huangshan Tourism as the representative of the hotel section and so on tourism.
should be said, Consumer exist in many industries, investment opportunities. As noted above, these investment opportunities with the historical conditions of large wave-consumption in China to open, this opportunity has just begun. but in the big opportunities, the investment industry is not the decisive factors, such as the liquor industry in the continued growth Moutai shares rose as impressive performance, but also liquor Gujing Distillery, from September 1996 since the first day of stock market is down, the investment in 11 years of nothing. Therefore, the most important we have to look at the performance of the consumer businesses continued growth of the leading enterprises in order to acquire the company's growth with a huge return on investment.
I would also like to say, China in the next wave-historical conditions of the consumer revolution, but also, and about the formation of a new round of the largest wave of Chinese urbanization phase coupling. the end of 2008, China's urban population exceeds 600 million, the level of urbanization reached 45.7%. National Bureau of Statistics China Economic Monitoring Center Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the month 10 , told reporters in Beijing, whether it is in the world compared to the same level of development, or compared with developed countries, China's urbanization rate is relatively low. The relatively low because only a strong momentum built up after . still have to remember that the process of urbanization in a population of 1.3 billion, 900 million is a huge country where farmers started. It will be the final trip of world history during the last migration from rural to urban migration of the great feat, unprecedented, and no latecomers!
National Bureau of Statistics officials said in Beijing on 10th of this month, the future development of the city to remove the obstacles mm cancel the household registration system, to break the urban-rural division of the binary system is an irreversible trend. 2015, China's urbanization rate will reach 50%; By 2030, China's urbanization rate will reach 70-75% of the average level of developed countries. China's huge space for development of urbanization, but also to promote China's economic development will become power. First, urbanization will drive real estate development, real estate is a high degree of industry relevance. From this perspective, I feel the prices of large and medium cities now is not high, but too low. the future price of the property market in China will rise rapidly. Since scarcity of population and land-quarter, the next big Beijing and Shanghai metropolitan area large (total over 500 million people) of the property will be alarmingly high, more than most developed countries Urban property prices. China's future is another real estate Jin Yi Shenzhen and Zhuhai with Hong Kong and Macao, extending to Hainan Hercynian, like a gold chain winds along the coastline, the population concentration will gradually close to 2 million people. plus five Inland Pearl: Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shenyang, respectively, more than 100 million people around the formation of radiation effects. This will be the next 20 years, China's urban economic landscape, although there are many objective obstacles, but the economic development trend will be verified by time.
important conclusion of this paper is: a strategically advantageous position from the world financial crisis under the conditions of this major historical look to the future direction of China's economy, strong domestic demand, the Chinese government policy, major efforts to expand the image of consciousness, constantly growing middle class, rapid urbanization process moves forward, and is approaching a serious aging of China, China's domestic demand is pregnant with an unprecedented opportunity for development of great change and great, 2009 will be a outward from the export to domestic consumption era the initial transition years. This transformation has a great span of two directions: First, cover the consumer population, from urban to rural areas, consumers began to significant changes in cognitive psychology; the second is covered by the industry, from real estate, automobiles, home appliances to clothing, cosmetics, beverages, and many, no exceptions. as a market investor, from now seize the opportunity to consider and Buying revolutionary transformation of China's consumption of high-quality assets related to the subject, holding a few years, you will no doubt domestic consumption of this revolution is to enjoy the last big bonus winners!
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